Forecasting In My CSA Home - And It's Not The Confederate States Of America

With a life-long interest in weather, it's no wonder more than a few of my classmates referred to me as "WiHi's weatherman." when I attended my 50th high school reunion last year. It all began six decades ago in the western Maryland mountains in a population measured in the tens of thousands. In the same manner that weather and climate change, my location over those decades has changed. The huge difference today is both the size and geography of "home." To call Atlanta "home" means looking at what the Bureau of the Census calls a Combined Statistical Area (CSA) of almost 7 million people living in more than forty counties covering almost 11,000 square miles. Add to that a physical geography ranging from the coastal plain at an elevation of 300 feet to the Appalachian Mountains approaching 4000 feet.

I can only imagine the difficulty of forecasting a winter weather event for this area sixty years ago. There's no question weather forecasting improved significantly over those decades, but the CSA's size and variation still makes forecasting for Atlanta a serious challenge. Our National Weather Service (NWS) does well in what I would call a macro-forecast two to three days out. By the sixth day accuracy begins to drop at an accelerating rate. That's why you see seven day forecasts these days, something the NWS has done since 2000. Looking in the other direction we can see some remarkably accurate spot forecasts measured in hours. It gets complicated when you have a lot of spots.

That brings me to the big snow non-event here at "home" over the last two days. Readers may recall that Atlanta was pilloried in the national media last year over "Snowmageddon," an ice and snow event in late January that paralyzed north Georgia. Those who were not here to experience it should be aware that the media chose to ignore reporting that snow concealed a nice blanket of freezing rain on virtually every paved surface. In addition, limited storm preparation at all levels worsened the situation.

This time, they took every precaution from multiple coats of brine sprayed on major roads a day in advance to distributing the usual tons of road salt to preparing scores of emergency shelters. They said "Snowmageddon" wouldn't happen again. And this time for the most part they were correct. The freezing line snaked across the middle of the CSA rather as expected. Yes, there was snow and ice yesterday followed by "black ice" on the roads this morning around "home," but for millions it was a best case scenario. As for our spot on the Atlanta matrix it was a rainy non-event. I'd like to think these non-events will continue for many weeks in this aging winter.  In the spirit of the transition there is much to enjoy wherever we live. If you don't believe me look out the nearest window and listen to this:

Late Winter Music

A rather messy weather system swept through Georgia overnight. Tornadoes were a possibility on the coast. Heavy winds and rains were very real everywhere. By evening the sun broke through high overcast to illuminate scud racing out of the south and a variety of other clouds roaring from the southwest and west.  A dead calm filled the bare orange-blazed trees. It was a minimal and beautiful moment, perfect for late winter music:

Time To Escape The Cold

Having fun on Florida's fine beaches

Tonight, temps in the Atlanta suburbs will dip into the low 20s. It's the coldest yet this winter, and a reminder of those wonderful and regular getaways to tropical Florida when OTR could throw everything he owned into a Camaro. The opportunities to enjoy nature and recreation were just about endless.

Homage To The Waning Sunlight Days

The world is well past September's Vernal Equinox. In the Northern Hemisphere, we begin this month with the Sun's zenith racing south, our daylight shrinking, and nature cooling into a period of rest. Our garden moved inside earlier and we restored firewood to the hearth. The blue sky behind the fall palette of our woods turned gray by supper and rain fell hard by dark. In silence we talk to faces in the fire of the green months and the promises of holidays and future time.

"The Winter Is Young Yet, So Young."

In typical fashion, Fall in the Georgia Piedmont keeps lingering like a long goodbye. Although there is some nice color finally showing in OTR's woods this week and temperatures are pushing into the low 80s, there is something brewing in the tropical Pacific Ocean that could bring these pleasantries to a quick end. Meteorologists are calling it a super La Nina, and it's being described as potentially the strongest since 1955-56. La Ninas bring on colder winters to most parts of the United States and Europe. Super ones bring record low temperatures and seemingly endless cold waves. Most everyone knows about La Nina's warmer brother, EL Nino. Looks like were about to get an unforgettable introduction to another member of the family. Here is your link to the details at Pajamas Media.

Thanks to Instapundit for the link.
Title: from the poem, Winter Milk, by Carl Sandburg.