Saturday, September 2, 2023

Why Climate Change Is Way Beyond Fossil Fuel And Potentially Our Ability To Manage It


For the past two months or so some serious solar flares have washed our planet. The series of solar storms emitting these strong flares from the surface of the sun has rotated from view and no longer pose a threat to Earth. On the other hand as we approach 2025 and the peak of the current sunspot cycle we could soon be washed in an abundance of electromagnetic energy. Although a very, very minimal threat to life thanks to our ozone layer these storms could be a serious threat to a society that relies on electricity.




Solar flares are a frequent occurrence and scientists have measured their strength for a century. The last flare to seriously impact the world's electrical systems and components was in 1972. That event degraded satellite performance, blocked radio frequencies, disrupted electrical grids, produced high current surges in telephone lines, detonated magnetic sea mines, and produced auroras so bright they cast shadows. To say the least it was a dramatic happening.

In February 2022 Elon Musk's SpaceX program launched another series of Starlink telecommunications satellites. Before they could be moved to their final orbit the headwinds of a strong solar flare doomed them to a degrading orbit and an eventual fiery end in our atmosphere. It's only the latest consequence of our experience with solar winds.

On September 1-2, 1859, the high technology of the day had a similar experience that heliophyisicists call the Carrington Event. It was named after British astronomer Richard Carrington who with fellow astronomer Richard Hodgson first documented a solar flare in detail. We can only imagine the impact of that event given our reliance on electricity today. 

The Carrington Event literally "turned on the lights." Our friends at spaceweather.com wrote this about the event:

...a billion-ton coronal mass ejection (CME) slammed into Earth's magnetic field. Campers in the Rocky Mountains woke up in the middle of the night, thinking that the glow they saw was sunrise. No, it was the Northern Lights. People in Cuba read their morning paper by the red illumination of aurora borealis. Earth was peppered by particles so energetic, they altered the chemistry of polar ice.

 


Orange dots mark sighting of auroras on the morning of September 2, 1859


The geomagnetic storm that day was so powerful that telegraph keys sparked and caught fire. Even with power lost in the lines, the storm electrified them to the point that messages could still be sent. Given our dependence on technology today, such storms pose a significant threat. Here's more from NASA's Science News page:

...a huge solar flare on August 4, 1972, knocked out long-distance telephone communication across Illinois. That event, in fact, caused AT&T to redesign its power system for transatlantic cables. A similar flare on March 13, 1989, provoked geomagnetic storms that disrupted electric power transmission from the Hydro Québec generating station in Canada, blacking out most of the province and plunging 6 million people into darkness for 9 hours; aurora-induced power surges even melted power transformers in New Jersey. In December 2005, X-rays from another solar storm disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation signals for about 10 minutes.

Read more about past CME events in this link on the spaceweather.com page.

There is one certainty and that is the more our knowledge expands the more we understand how little we really know. Perhaps it is time to pay as much attention to coronal mass ejections and solar flares as we do to climate change. Both could pose significant world-wide threats. Both deserve more study. 

And for the philosophers among us there's always the challenge of pondering what we don't know about what we don't know. 

Enough for now. I'll let you explore the very new issue of near earth objects (NEO) on you own for now and leave my comments for another day.


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