Poll Dancing In The Street

Currier and Ives interpret the Boston Tea Party

As a right-center thinker, OTR knows scores of people who call themselves "Republican."  He also knows many of them are unhappy at the party's willingness to nominate establishment members for national office on the basis of who is next in line rather than who can win.  We can expect the party base to change significantly over the next four years. And why shouldn't it?  We have after all witnessed a leftist fringe takeover of the Democratic party so dramatic that it would repulse Harry Truman and leave John Kennedy shaken and confused.  There is plenty of comment in the blogosphere about this changing political landscape.  One of the best sources of comment and analysis is Rasmussen Reports.

Some pundit junkies view Rasmussen Reports as little more than a shill for the right. Others view the organization as a reliable polling site mainly due to its more selective and current population samples as well as its track record. No matter your politics, Scott Rasmussen has some very interesting observations on what the 2012 elections hold for the Republican party, regardless of who wins the presidential election.  We can thank William Katz (Urgent Agenda) for spotting these observations and providing his ever meaningful comments on the issue.

OTR would like to draw the attention of readers to William Katz and his observations of the American experience. As a novelist, staffer on Johnny Carson's Tonight Show, comedy writer for Bob Newhart, a NYT Magazine editor, a CIA officer, and more, he brings what OTR calls a Tralfamadorian perception to the art of cultural observation.  Readers should also know that Katz is an occasional contributor at PowerLine, another premiere site for critical observers and readers alike.

Rasmussen Won Big In Last Night's Elections

Most of the political punditry today is still focused on the candidates as winners and losers. Moonbattery notes that there was a big winner yesterday who wasn't on the ballot. That winner is independent pollster, Scott Rasmussen, president and founder of Rasmussen Reports. Moonbattery notes, "he was the only pollster to call New Jersey accurately." The post links to an interesting Slate commentary on winners and losers, leading off with details on the Rasmussen polls.

It is amazing that their last poll prior to the New Jersey election called it 46-43-8 (Christie-Corzine-Daggett). Actual result was 49-45-6. This pollster - not always on the mark, but far ahead of the pollster pack - is doing something right and bears careful watching.

Rasmussen Poll: Obama Slide Continues

Rasmussen is reporting the worst number yet for President Obama it is daily tracking poll of voters. An astounding 41% strongly disapprove of his performance after eight months in office.

Obama Falls Below 50% Approval In Rasmussen Poll

This is the first time President Obama's overall approval rating has fallen below 50% in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll of likely voters. Rasmussen is the tracker to watch because it is the recognized leader in polling accuracy. This story is everywhere on the Internet. Here is the original post.

Obama Approval Sinking Fast

This week, the Rassmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows President Obama's approval in serious decline. Today's poll shows 30% of voters strongly approve of his performance while 38% strongly disapprove. This puts the Presidential Approval Index at -8, its lowest point since Obama's inauguration on January 20. The index was even on June 28. Read more here, here, here and here. As Powerline's John Hinderaker observes, this significant decline is occurring long before voters can feel any negatives from Obama's policies. That is very bad news if you believe in hope and change.

Obama Poll

The latest Rasmussen survey show President Obama with a +4 approval index. The index has been shrinking lately and will bear close watching as the administration caroms off events, both domestic and foreign, as the weeks unfold. Power Line has the story here.

Is It Time To Apologize For Crimes Against Iran?

John Hinderaker - Powerline, Claremont Institute, etc. - has some comment today on a Rasmussen poll released yesterday. The poll indicated that "just 11%" of American voters thought the United States should apologize to Iran for " 'crimes' committed against the Islamic country." What caught his attention was the term "just." Was Rasmussen expecting more? Exactly what is on this "crimes" list? Where have we violated law with specific acts against Iran?
I must agree with him that I find it hard to understand how even one out of ten American voters - yes, these people voted - could hold this view. On the other hand I had eleven aunts and uncles, and only one of them, Uncle Bill, was an "outlier," to say the least. Maybe "one in ten/eleven" is a reasonable ratio for chronic fringe behavior among the general population as well.

More seriously, the use of the word "just" could be acceptable given what I perceive is a much higher infection of derangement syndrome still flourishing on the left. Granted, Obama's election is a balm that will sooth many in the syndrome crowd, but their nucleus cannot be penetrated so easily. Nothing short of the end of the U.S. as we know it will satisfy this group. In fact, they continue to hammer Bush-Cheney-Palin as if they were "in power." Soon, projection will set in and their anger will focus on the new power structure as the unrealized expectations accumulate day by day. This is not good for an administration likely to face an array of serious international challenges in the short term.

I see Obama responding in one of two ways. He can be a Harry Truman with some "give 'em hell" reality. Or he can be a Jimmy Carter and his "can't we all just get along?" strategy. Campaign rhetoric would support the former. I cannot see the middle way as a meaningful alternative these days. Either way, the Uncle Bills will be there making life a bit more challenging for them, more entertaining for us. Too bad they can't apologize for such misery making.

[Understand that I can see a Carter strategy working in the appropriate environment, but certainly not today. I'm sorry to be tough on him; he's a fine writer. We have enjoyed several of his books.]