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| The Scream Edvard Munch 1893 |
Imagine waking up on this fine Tuesday morning to hear that a gigantic magnetic storm will disrupt much of the planet's electronics and communication networks in two days. This event simply isn't going to break up your digital reception of Saturday's big game - Go Dawgs. It's going to require months of reconstruction - software and hardware - on power grids, communication systems and circuit boards on land, sea, air, and in space. I raise this issue not to alarm but to use coronal mass ejection (CME) and similar electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events as modern-day examples of climate issues that need to compete with the longer term phenomenon of global climate change. Furthermore, I am not about to deny or denigrate the existence and significance of global warming and cooling. It happens and I have no issue with mitigation and preparation for the consequences. On the other hand, sometimes our priorities don't seem to match the serious short-term and potentially catastrophic threats we face. Scientists and engineers already know of an event in 1859 that, had it occurred this morning in our high tech electronic world, would have caused widespread threats to social, political, and economic systems worldwide.
Why raise the issue today? This day marks the 141st anniversary of the massive volcanic explosion of the Indonesian island known as Krokatoa. The event killed over 36,000 people, sent a measurable shock wave around the world seven times and produced the loudest noise heard in recorded history, a noise heard in Perth, Australia, more than 2800 miles from the island. Geophysical impacts included a decline of over 2 degrees in the planet's average global temperatures and more than a decade of memorable atmospheric events including, vivid sunsets, lavender suns, and noctilucent clouds.
This was an astounding event in earth history and a modern-day lesson in the fragile nature of the planet and its inhabitants. As I've said before, nature in all her beauty can be a cruel mother. In light of the recent events like Mount St. Helens, record setting earthquakes, earth-grazing fireballs, and meteors, it's also a lesson that radical global climate change could occur tomorrow as well as a century from now. Granted, the sciences in question are little more than 150 years old but we have come a long way in understanding, yet we know there are some events beyond knowledge and control.
This is a timely anniversary given that an underwater volcano (Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apal) in Tonga, a Pacific island nation, erupted in January 2022 and thrust as much as 160 million tons of water vapor into the stratosphere. Climatologists soon determined this instantaneous 5% increase in water vapor could likely increase global temperatures for some years to come. For climate scientists this is a unique event as it is the first eruption of its kind that can be effectively measured and analyzed. In other words there is no forecast model for the Tonga volcano. All science can do is observe, provide some analysis, and issue essentially speculative forecasts on the impacts of the event. If this year's high temperatures - it's called weather - tell us anything it's that climate scientists seem to be on to something.
Do keep the faith, my friends. There's a really good probability for sunrise tomorrow. The chances for more tomorrows are equally high because some of our finest earth and space scientists study and stand watch for these threats, short-term and long-term. I can't imagine a more exciting career than one exploring the far reaches of the planet and its journey in the universe.
In case you're wondering: Edvard Muunch painted four versions of The Scream of Nature over a seventeen year period beginning in 1893. Some experts believe his depiction of the vivid orange-red sky came from his observations of similar sunsets caused by the explosion of Krakatoa a decade earlier. I wonder how many artists will be incorporating the effects of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apal on our environment over the next few decades.
Sources
Text:
The Tonga Volcano Shook the World: It May Also Affect the Climate, The New York Times, September 22, 2022
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